Crypto Market Weekly Review: BTC Fluctuates at High Levels, Awaiting Breakthrough

This week, Bitcoin opened at $108,386.44 and closed at $109,217.98, with an increase of 0.77%. It reached a high of $110,590 and a low of $105,119.70, with a volatility of 5.05%. Trading volume continues to shrink.

The market has been relatively calm over the past seven days, with macro events still being the dominant factor in the BTC trend. Employment data, new legislation, and tariff disputes have not shown any changes beyond expectations.

A large holder who has held over 80,000 BTC and has been inactive for 14 years started moving assets this week, putting some psychological pressure on the market. As the price of BTC approaches historical highs again, the trend of long-term holders reducing their holdings may reappear.

At the same time, some positive changes have emerged. After more than a month of silence, the activity level of funds in the market has begun to increase. This may resonate with off-market funds, driving BTC to initiate the fourth wave of this bull market.

Macro Environment Analysis

Three major macro events intertwine to impact the crypto market.

First, the U.S. employment data exceeded expectations. The unemployment rate in June was 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and the previous value of 4.2%. Although private sector jobs decreased, state government jobs surged. The number of unemployment claims for the week ending June 28 was 233,000, also lower than expected. This alleviated market concerns about a U.S. economic recession on one hand, and on the other hand, reduced the likelihood of an interest rate cut in July, ultimately having a relatively neutral impact on the market.

Secondly, the U.S. president signed a new bill, becoming the largest political achievement of his current term so far. The bill includes massive tax cuts, an increase in government budget, and spending cuts, which may further weaken the dollar's credit in the long term, increasing debt and reducing government revenue. However, in the short to medium term, it will undoubtedly stimulate the economy. Despite the controversy, the financial markets overall hold a positive attitude, directly driving the S&P 500 index to a new high.

Finally, the tariff dispute has entered a new phase. The U.S. President announced that he has signed a "tariff letter" to 12 countries, adjusting the final tax rate range to 10%-70%, expected to be implemented on August 1. This brings new uncertainties to global trade, inflation, and market sentiment. Due to the tax rate ceiling exceeding expectations, the market reaction is slightly negative, but the impact is limited.

Currently, the U.S. economy is showing signs of a soft landing or no landing, with interest rate cuts expected to begin in September. The new legislation will be beneficial for U.S. stocks in the short term. The impact of the tariff dispute is about to fade. Driven by these factors, U.S. stocks have reached new historical highs again, and the upward trend may continue in the medium to short term. However, considering that current valuations are not low, close attention must be paid to changes in corporate profitability and the impact of tariffs on the economy and employment data.

crypto market dynamics

Compared to the previous weeks, the BTC market is relatively calm this week, but changes are brewing internally.

On July 2nd, Bitcoin once again validated the "first bullish uptrend line," but fluctuated around $108,000 for most of the week and launched the third attack on the historical high of $110,000 in 8 months.

The performance of the retail market shows significant differentiation. On-site trading enthusiasm has waned, with on-chain activity and the number of new addresses remaining flat. However, the trading of Bitcoin spot ETFs is robust, continuing to record capital inflows.

Currently, the price and trend of BTC seem to be completely controlled by the funds from the spot ETF channel, with the correlation to the Nasdaq index rising to 0.94.

Some potential changes are taking place. The on-chain lending rates and the average 30-day premium rate in the contract market have rebounded from the bottom, but their sustainability still needs to be observed. If the funds in the spot ETF channel continue to flow in and on-chain capital starts to go long, creating a resonance, then the fourth wave of increase may arrive soon.

capital flow

After the big rebound, the capital inflow has shown differentiation. The funds in the stablecoin channel have weakened, while the funds in the Bitcoin spot ETF channel are relatively active and stable.

This week, the inflow of funds into Bitcoin spot ETF channels was $790 million, a decrease from last week, but still maintained at a high level. The inflow of stablecoin channels was $1.574 billion, close to last week.

selling pressure and selling

As the price challenges $110,000 again, long-term holders seem to be restarting their sell-off.

From the scale of funds entering the exchange, the total selling scale of short-term and long-term holders this week continues to decrease, providing support for the rise in BTC prices.

However, an ancient wallet that has held over 80,000 BTC and remained dormant for 14 years has shown unusual activity this week, leading to a significant increase in on-chain liquidation value.

According to the current trend, once Bitcoin breaks through $110,000 and starts the fourth wave of increase, the sell-off by long-term holders and large coin holders may be triggered again. These sell-offs will determine the new price level of Bitcoin together with the buying pressure.

cyclical indicator

A certain indicator shows that the BTC cycle indicator is 0.625, in an upward phase.