Galaxy Securities pointed out that the moderate easing direction remains unchanged, but the pace of interest rate cuts may change, and another rate cut needs to wait. The orientation of monetary policy in 2025 will still turn to moderate easing, and there is still room for interest rate cuts and reserve cuts throughout the year. The total cumulative adjustment of the Lãi suất (7-day reverse repurchase Lãi suất) may be 30-40BP, guiding the 5-year LPR to decrease by 40-60BP. The total reserve cut may be 100-150BP throughout the year. The net purchase of central bank bonds in the open market may exceed 2 trillion yuan throughout the year. The interest rate cut window may gradually open after the expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the second quarter. Reserve cuts and buy-back reverse repo will be important tools to release medium and long-term liquidity. At the same time, reserve cuts can save bank costs, support credit expansion, and the probability of landing in the first quarter is still relatively high. We predict that in 2025, the fluctuation range of the 10-year government bond yield will be 1.5%-1.9% within the year. If the central bank reduces the Lãi suất by 40BP throughout the year, according to our calculation, 1.64% may be a more reasonable level. The Tỷ giá of the USD against the RMB may fluctuate around 7.3.
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Galaxy Securities pointed out that the moderate easing direction remains unchanged, but the pace of interest rate cuts may change, and another rate cut needs to wait. The orientation of monetary policy in 2025 will still turn to moderate easing, and there is still room for interest rate cuts and reserve cuts throughout the year. The total cumulative adjustment of the Lãi suất (7-day reverse repurchase Lãi suất) may be 30-40BP, guiding the 5-year LPR to decrease by 40-60BP. The total reserve cut may be 100-150BP throughout the year. The net purchase of central bank bonds in the open market may exceed 2 trillion yuan throughout the year. The interest rate cut window may gradually open after the expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the second quarter. Reserve cuts and buy-back reverse repo will be important tools to release medium and long-term liquidity. At the same time, reserve cuts can save bank costs, support credit expansion, and the probability of landing in the first quarter is still relatively high. We predict that in 2025, the fluctuation range of the 10-year government bond yield will be 1.5%-1.9% within the year. If the central bank reduces the Lãi suất by 40BP throughout the year, according to our calculation, 1.64% may be a more reasonable level. The Tỷ giá of the USD against the RMB may fluctuate around 7.3.