Bitcoin hits resistance at $112,000, may go sideways until the end of August

1. Market Overview

The tax cut bill promoted by the Trump administration has passed in the House of Representatives and is expected to be signed into effect in the early hours of July 5. This bill could lead to an increase in U.S. debt by $3.4 trillion, prompting Moody's to downgrade the U.S. credit rating. However, June's non-farm payroll data showed strong performance, with an addition of 147,000 jobs and an unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%, providing a buffer for the implementation of the policy. This jobs report caused the market's expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September to drop from 98% to 80%.

The Goldman Sachs analyst team, however, holds an opposite view. They have lowered their forecast for U.S. Treasury yields and expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates consecutively in September, October, and December. They believe that job growth mainly relies on local government hiring, and the labor participation rate is weak. Regarding tariff policies, Trump plans to send notifications to relevant countries starting July 4, unilaterally setting tariff rates ranging from 60%-70% and 10%-20%.

The process of compliance in the cryptocurrency industry is also accelerating. An analyst pointed out that stablecoin issuers have recently applied for a national trust bank license in the United States, which will set a compliance benchmark for US stablecoin regulation, promote industry standardization, and help integrate stablecoins into anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing systems.

In this macro context, the Bitcoin market reacts sensitively. After the non-farm payroll data was released, the Bitcoin price briefly surged towards $110,000 but failed to break through. Nevertheless, several analysts remain optimistic about the medium to long-term prospects of Bitcoin. Some analysts predict that Bitcoin may rise to $116,000 by the end of this month, while others have set a target price of $135,000. There are even analysts who, based on the logic of the global broad money supply hitting a new high, predict that the Bitcoin price could rise to $170,000.

However, short-term risks remain. The most immediate resistance level is at $112,000, where there are a large number of sell orders. Technical analysis shows that if it cannot break through $110,500, the support target range below is $106,000 to $107,500. A well-known figure warned that a short-term contraction in dollar liquidity could lead to Bitcoin prices falling to the $90,000 to $95,000 range. He expects that before the end of August, the market may trade sideways or decline slightly, and after liquidity is restored in early September, it may welcome an increase.

The altcoin market shows a mixed performance, with some tokens experiencing slight increases, while most are still declining. Notably, certain emerging tokens have seen a surge in trading volume and significant price increases. Especially on a certain chain, several outstanding tokens have seen price increases ranging from 30% to 814%.

2. Key Data

• Bitcoin: $109,188 (YTD +16.61%), daily trading volume $28.786 billion
• Ethereum: $2,579.71 (Year-to-date -22.81%), Daily trading volume $18.035 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 73 (Greed)
• Average GAS: BTC 1.18 sat/vB, ETH 0.28 Gwei
• Market Share: BTC 64.5%, ETH 9.2%
• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 0.9425
• Sector performance: L2 sector down 3.23%, RWA sector down 3.12%
• 24-hour liquidation data: 81,349 people were liquidated, with a total amount of 193 million US dollars.

3. ETF Capital Flow

• Bitcoin ETF: +$602 million
• Ethereum ETF: +$149 million

4. Today's Outlook

Due to Independence Day in the United States, the stock market is closed all day.

• A certain wallet will exclusively launch a new token
• A certain DAO dual governance proposal has been approved and will go live today.

Today's top 500 market cap gainers: Humanity Protocol (H) up 28.99%, FUNToken (FUN) up 23.71%, Paycoin (PCI) up 12.48%, Zircuit (ZRC) up 12.27%, Blast (BLAST) up 12.11%.

5. Hot News

• A wallet suspected to be associated with a certain company has withdrawn 10,000 ETH from the exchange again.
• A certain development company acquired 17,760 SOL for 2.72 million dollars, expanding its holdings and staking strategy.
• A certain company collaborates with investment institutions to launch a $250 million investment plan for the RWA tokenization project.
• The U.S. House of Representatives passed a significant bill.
• A certain capital withdrew $126 million worth of ETH from centralized exchanges in the past 24 hours.
• The US non-farm payroll data for June exceeded expectations, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.1%.
• The core working group of a certain project has been dissolved, and 4.5 million tokens have been returned to the DAO.
• A game company increased its holdings in ETH, and early whales deposited ETH into exchanges.
• Data shows that a certain institution has sold a large amount of tokens but still holds a significant position.
• Swiss bank supports a certain company's stablecoin custody and trading
• An institution associated with a giant whale wallet transfers a large amount of BTC after being dormant for two years.
• Research Institution: Bitcoin is attempting to break through the $110,000 key level.