As the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting approaches, the market is once again focusing on the topic of interest rate cuts. According to the latest data, the majority of investors expect the possibility of a rate cut in September to be around 75%, while the probability of keeping the interest rate stable is 25%. Looking ahead to October, market expectations are more diversified, with the probabilities of cumulative rate cuts of 25 basis points and 50 basis points being 51.5% and 35.3%, respectively.

However, there are differences of opinion within the Fed. Cleveland Fed President Mester stated that, given the current inflation levels are still relatively high and have a recent upward trend, she does not agree with a rate cut in September. Although the labor market appears slightly weak, the unemployment rate is still close to 'full employment' levels, so she tends to favor maintaining a moderately tight monetary policy.

In contrast, another Fed official, Collins, holds a more flexible attitude. He believes that if the job market deteriorates further, cutting interest rates in the short term may be an appropriate response. However, he expects inflation to remain high until the end of the year and to start declining only in 2026. This internal divergence of views has led the market to gradually lower expectations for two rate cuts this year.

It is worth noting that the correlation between traditional financial markets and the cryptocurrency sector is becoming increasingly apparent. For example, the NYSE-listed company Yirendai disclosed in its second-quarter earnings report that due to the rise in the price of Ethereum, the company recorded a fair value adjustment gain. This phenomenon highlights the potential impact of cryptocurrency market volatility on the performance of traditional financial institutions, further confirming the increasingly close connection between the two fields.

As the decision date of the Fed approaches, the market will continue to closely monitor various dynamics, weighing the impact of different factors on the future direction of monetary policy. At the same time, the interaction between crypto assets and traditional finance will also become one of the focal points for investors, reflecting the ongoing evolution of the financial ecosystem.