Galaxy Securities pointed out that the moderate easing direction remains unchanged, but the pace of interest rate cuts may change, and another rate cut will need to wait. The orientation of monetary policy in 2025 is still towards moderate easing, and there is still room for interest rate cuts and reserve ratio cuts throughout the year. The total cumulative adjustment of the Taux d'intérêt (7-day reverse repurchase Taux d'intérêt ) may be 30-40BP, guiding the 5-year LPR to decrease by 40-60BP. The total cumulative reserve ratio cut may be 100-150BP throughout the year. The central bank's open market national debt may have a net purchase of over 2 trillion yuan throughout the year. The window for interest rate cuts may gradually open after the expectations of a second quarter Fed rate cut are reignited. Reserve requirement cuts and reverse repurchases will be important tools for releasing medium- and long-term liquidity, and at the same time, reserve requirement cuts can save bank costs and support credit expansion, with a high probability of landing in the first quarter. We predict that in 2025, the annual Fluctuation range of the 10-year national debt yield will be 1.5%-1.9%. If the central bank cuts policy Taux d'intérêt by 40BP throughout the year, according to our calculations, 1.64% may be a relatively reasonable level. The Taux de change of the US dollar against the RMB may fluctuate around 7.3.
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Galaxy Securities pointed out that the moderate easing direction remains unchanged, but the pace of interest rate cuts may change, and another rate cut will need to wait. The orientation of monetary policy in 2025 is still towards moderate easing, and there is still room for interest rate cuts and reserve ratio cuts throughout the year. The total cumulative adjustment of the Taux d'intérêt (7-day reverse repurchase Taux d'intérêt ) may be 30-40BP, guiding the 5-year LPR to decrease by 40-60BP. The total cumulative reserve ratio cut may be 100-150BP throughout the year. The central bank's open market national debt may have a net purchase of over 2 trillion yuan throughout the year. The window for interest rate cuts may gradually open after the expectations of a second quarter Fed rate cut are reignited. Reserve requirement cuts and reverse repurchases will be important tools for releasing medium- and long-term liquidity, and at the same time, reserve requirement cuts can save bank costs and support credit expansion, with a high probability of landing in the first quarter. We predict that in 2025, the annual Fluctuation range of the 10-year national debt yield will be 1.5%-1.9%. If the central bank cuts policy Taux d'intérêt by 40BP throughout the year, according to our calculations, 1.64% may be a relatively reasonable level. The Taux de change of the US dollar against the RMB may fluctuate around 7.3.